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Sat Jan 30, 2010 1:09 pm by pickard

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Tue Jan 26, 2010 10:29 pm by Luau

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 EXPEDITION THEORY.

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Admin
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PostSubject: EXPEDITION THEORY.   Mon Jan 25, 2010 3:03 pm

Chat about expeditions.
You thoughts and possible angles with expeditions.
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Admin
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PostSubject: First thing first... THE EXPEDITION CALCULATOR !!!   Mon Jan 25, 2010 2:41 pm

http://bontchev.my.contact.bg/ogame/expeditions.html


Remember to spread your eggs. Don't put all your fleet onto one expedition. Split it into 3 in case you loose one...
Wink
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PostSubject: Circulars from Luau...   Mon Jan 25, 2010 5:32 pm

Note many of his inital reports are preliminary, and his conclusions ongoing.



Player Luau tells you the following:
I forgot some numbers when I posted me expedition results.

350 expeditions @ 2.5kk SI & 75k cargo holds

Resources found:
Metal = 16,552,219
Crystal = 4,661,479
Deut = 1,911,238

Net returns (includes ships found and lost and combat, and deut costs for travel & hold time always 1 hour)

Metal = 18,290,219
Crystal = 6,720,479
Deut = 743,331

DM = 5,440



350 expeditions @ 5kk SI & 150k cargo holds

Resources found:
Metal = 19,188,000
Crystal = 5,949,000
Deut = 1,782,000

Net returns (includes ships found and lost and combat, and deut costs for travel & hold time always 1 hour)

Metal = 15,395,000
Crystal = 5,700,000
Deut = -1,208,691 (that's negative net return, mostly because costs more to send and more lost ships during combat)

DM = 6,461


Dark matter is not supposed to be relative to size of ships, so why am I getting 20% more with 5k fleet? Could be a coincidence, or maybe you do after all find more DM with bigger fleet. Ive been told DM is independent of fleet size (and Ive found large amounts of DM even with a 100k fleet size).

My 2.5kk (just multiply by 2 for the 5kk) fleet was mostly consisting of 28 LC , 50 Cr , 3 BS , 4 probes , 9 BCs. That was a nice fleet, but the problem was when loosing Cruisers, it costs deut (which may explain high deut cost to replace).

Im changing my 2.5k fleet to 29 LC , 30 BS , 2 probes , 5 BC. Costs 2/3 less in deut if I need to replace ships. This is the new fleet Ill be testing this year.



5 from 51
From: Luau [1:342:11]
To: wulf
Subject: RE:RE:RE:RE:Moonshot
Date: 02.01.2010 17:32:24

* delete
* answer
* report

4 probes is just to make EXACTLY 2.5 million SI.

Reducing deut cost, is not just for travel time, but in combat situation also. Sending only BC would cost you 15k deut for everyone of them you loose. You need some fodder for your BC; the cargos are the ones getting the most damaged, then your BS, and in all the combats Ive been in I only lost 1 BC. I used to have Cr as fodder, but in the long run they cost as much, if not more, to replace as loosing BCs. So Im trying this new fleet. Cargos will still get hit, but I prefer the crystal replacement cost rather than the deut.

It's jsut a matter of personnal preference; there are NO magic fleet in expeditions except for 2 occasions.

1- 100% bomber fleet is the BEST against combat situation. They're the best to survive but have very little cargos. You use that type of fleet if ALL you're interested in are ships.

2- 100% cargos are the WORSTWORSTWORST in combat situation; but if all you're interested in is resources, these are the best. Unfortunaly, you will occasionally face combat and since you cant escape that, your net return after replacement costs might not be worth it at all.

Considering these 2 extremes, all the rest is personnal preference and trial & error to test survivability. My previous fleet with Cr did have a high survivability, but still needed some ship replacement once in a while. The new fleet will also need some replacement, obviously, but Im testing if the costs will be lower (at least BS only cost metal and crystal). After all, loose 10 cruisers and it costs you more than a single BC, and BC do have easy rapid-fire vs Cr (at least BS are more resistant even considering the rapid-fire).

I always send in my own galaxy; I also heard about that "recharge" rule, but my experience shows no difference wether I send to my own galaxy or to another. I can find the exact same amounts wherever I go. And I can send as much as 10 expeditions in my own system per day.




Ive posted in a circ my fleet for expedition (old fleet and the new one Im trying out).

Yes I always use all my exp slots (Ill be at 3 exp slots very soon, and Ill be using all 3 as soon as I can)

Yes they are worthwhile. It's free resources, free ships (how do you think I got to #30 in fleetsize? A few months ago I was even #9, but aliens/pirates gnaw at your fleets) and DM and merchant (I used 3 merchants, used DM twice for trader and once for an engeneer, which btw is great when you're ready for grav tech since it also give +10% to your energy output).

If you divide the results I posted in circ by the number of expeditions, you'll see what's the average I get in the long run: it's as good as attacking good-sized farms.


SI means Structural Integrity. It's the total cost of building a ship EXCLUDING deuterium cost.

For example, a battleship's SI = 60,000 (45,000 metal + 15,000 crystal)
A battlecruiser's SI = 70,000 (30,000 metal + 40,000 crystal). You don't count the 15k deut cost in SI.

On Gamestat, there's a section that calculates your SI (they call it Point of Structure) and your cargo holds (technically, you're limited to 20% of your SI in resources found, but Ive often found as much as 27% SI, so I always bring more cargos than usual, enough to get at least 30% of SI).

The problem with bombers only fleet are 2-fold: ridiculously high deut cost and no cargo holds to bring back all the resources you could find. It is a possibility, as mentioned on ogame wiki, but it's not profitable. Unless, as I mentioned all you want is free ships, but the high deut cost for that fleet would cancel out whatever returns you may get from finding ships.



Im not sending expeditions during sleep anymore. Expeditions can be spotted by phalanx from the moment they are *SENT*. So if you send an expedition for 8 hours, the other player will have 8 hours to send his recyclers (a garantied debri field for him, since he have his recyclers get to the df 1 second after the attack).

Although, it does depend on your defenses, obviously. My defenses make attacking a 2.5kk fleet unprofitable, but he could make a profit vs a 5kk fleet (although with all the simulation I run, his losses in deut for lost BCs is high enough that overall I think he would more or less break even, but I dont want to test or temp them). I figure what's the point of risking one more expedition? In the 9 hours my night expedition would take, I could do 3 during daytime, so it's not worth it.

If you lauch from a moon, that's a totally different story here: can't be phalanxed. And it's a great way of splitting your fleetsave ships also.


cheers
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Luau
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PostSubject: Re: EXPEDITION THEORY.   Tue Jan 26, 2010 10:12 pm

Here are my results and statistics for my epxeditions. Thanks for that link up top Wulf, very usefull.

I have kept records of 700 expeditions; 350 of them with a total fleet SI of 2.5 million SI, 350 with SI of 5 million and always with a hold time of 1 hour. Here are the results and my interpretation of them.

(my usual fleet in these expeditions was 56 LC, 100 cr, 6 BS, 8 probes, 18 BC ; just divide by 2 for the 2.5kk fleet. I have occasionally changed the fleet which may cause some of the results to be inaccurate, especially combat).



RESULTS WITH 5.0 MILLION SI


Nothing = 84

Nothing = 60
Faster = 6
Delay = 18
--------------------------------------------------

Positive = 233

Resources = 117

Metal = 60 (total=19,188,000)
Crystal = 40 (total=5,949,000)
Deuterium = 17 (total=1,782,000)

Dark Matter = 39 (total = 6,461)

Ships = 74 (total in res cost = 6,908,000 M / 5,481,000 C / 429,000 D)

Merchant = 3
--------------------------------------------------

Negative = 33

Pirates = 24 (total lost in res = 1,406,000 M / 1,066,000 C / 62,000 D)
Aliens = 9 (total lost in res = 9,295,000 M / 4,664,000 C / 736,000 D)
Lost = 0 (total lost in res = 0 M / 0 C / 0 D)
--------------------------------------------------

NET TOTALS

Total Positives : 6,335,000 M / 2,548,000 C / 1,110,000 D
Total Negatives : 717,000 M / 573,000 C / 0 D

Net Profits : 5,618,000 M / 1,975,000 C / 1,110,000 D



RESULTS WITH 2.5 MILLION SI


Nothing = 90

Nothing = 63
Faster = 7
Delay = 20
--------------------------------------------------

Positive = 227

Resources = 118

Metal = 63 (total=16,552,219)
Crystal = 36 (total=4,661,479)
Deuterium = 19 (total=1,911,238)

Dark Matter = 35 (total=5,440)

Ships = 73 (total in res cost = 7,006,000 M / 5,118,000 C / 455,000 D)

Merchant = 1
--------------------------------------------------

Negative = 33

Pirates = 25 (total lost in res = 438,000 M / 362,000 C / 4,000 D)
Aliens = 6 (total lost in res = 1,582,000 M / 945,000 C / 82,000 D)
Lost = 2 (total lost in res = 3,248,000 M / 1,752,000 C / 230,000 D)
--------------------------------------------------

NET TOTALS

Total Positives : 23,558,219 M / 9,779,479 C / 2,366,238 D
Total Negatives : 5,268,000 M / 3,059,000 C / 316,000 D

Net Profits : 18,290,219 M / 6,720,479 C / 2,050,238 D
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PostSubject: Re: EXPEDITION THEORY.   Tue Jan 26, 2010 10:29 pm

Here is my analysis of the previous results.

Resources:

Sending the bigger fleet does increase my findings by up to 20%. But the increase in fleet means easier target during combats (which I will talk about later).

Ships

2.5kk fleet is the LARGEST fleet you can send to get max ships found. Which explains why 2.5kk & 5.0kk fleets get the same resources worth of ships found: sending more than 2.5kk of fleet SI will not net you more ships. As a weird coincidence, all the resources found are actually equal (even deuterium).

Dark Matter

Dark Matter is supposed to be independent of fleet size, but it does seem that sending a bigger fleet nets more DM. Is that just a coincidence or can you actually find more deuterium with a bigger fleet?

Merchants

Merchant is just a random find, whether you send 1 SI worth of ship or 10kk SI.

Combat & Lost

The results here may be a little scewered since I have occasionally changed the composition of my fleet (espcially after a brutal fight or after a lost result). But, it would seem that a bigger fleet does sustain more losses because it's more spread out and cant trully focus it's firepower. So because this will reduce all your net profits from resources found, over all return on investment would be better with a smaller fleet to reduce the losses here and net you a better return overall.


Considering that about 50% of the expedition results with not bring you any income (nothing results, combats, DM, merchants) and that sending a bigger fleet costs you more deuterium, I would concluded that a 2.5kk SI fleet is the best expedition size one should send.

Don't forget also that when you get DELAY or FASTER result, you may not have expected that for when you're about to go to sleep. If someone sees that fleet on your planet while you're away, it may get attacked. So better loose 2.5kk fleet rather than a 5.0kk fleet in these particulaer situations.
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